Sep 2012 - IEEE
"Up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040"
15 years, 7 months to go
"Plans to have its driverless cars on the market no later than 2018"
Accurate
"It will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US roads"
8 years, 7 months to go
"Will make fully autonomous vehicles available to the consumer by 2020. These cars will be able to drive in urban traffic"
Not Accurate
"We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."
Not Accurate
"Fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025"
Not Accurate
"They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person at the wheel in a six-year time frame"
Unknown
"Next generation of their A8 limousine will be able to drive itself with full autonomy"
Not Accurate
"Five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination."
Not Accurate
"Fully autonomous driving ... will happen within the next 10 years"
Not Accurate
"Estimated that fully autonomous vehicles would be available on the market within 5 years"
Not Accurate
"Uber's fleet to be driverless by 2030. The service will then be so inexpensive and ubiquitous that car ownership will be obsolete"
5 years, 7 months to go
"Fully autonomous Teslas to be ready by 2018 but notes that regulatory approval may take 1 to 3 more years thereafter."
Not Accurate
"Driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years"
Not Accurate
"Plans to bring first models capable of autonomous highway driving to the market by 2020"
Not Accurate
"Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner."
Not Accurate
"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
Not Accurate
"In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
Not Accurate
"It’s our ambition to have a car that can drive fully autonomously on the highway by 2021."
Not Accurate
"2020 for the autonomous car in urban conditions, probably 2025 for the driverless car."
Not Accurate
"Most industry participants now think that self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 or sooner"
Not Accurate
"I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year"
Not Accurate
"Aims to be operational with fleets of self-driving taxis in 10 cities of the world by 2020"
Cancelled
"Fully self-driving vehicles by 2021 ... expects that it will take several years longer until Ford will sell autonomous vehicles to the public."
Not Accurate
"Autonomous vehicle fleets will quickly become widespread and will account for the majority of Lyft rides [by 2021]. By 2025, personal car ownership will all-but end in major U.S. cities."
Not Accurate
"By the end of next year, ... a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging."
Not Accurate
"By 2021, Ford hopes to have a self-driving vehicle with 'no gas pedal' and 'no steering wheel,' with no need for the passenger to take control 'in a predefined area'"
Not Accurate
"The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year."
Not Accurate
"I think that you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla is about two years"
Not Accurate
"... possible the company could deliver cars with Level 4 or 5 capacity in 2021."
Not Accurate
"November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey."
Not Accurate
"Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this."
Not Accurate
"It will take no more than four years to have fully autonomous cars on the road."
Not Accurate
"I think probably by end of next year end of 2019 self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."
Not Accurate
"Probably technically be able to self deliver Teslas to customers doors in about a year then its up to the regulators"
Not Accurate
"You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think."
Not Accurate
"We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."
Unknown
"We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year"
Not Accurate
"We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."
Not Accurate
"I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months... the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year"
Not Accurate
"I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year... next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."
Not Accurate
"We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too"
Not Accurate
"Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road."
Not Accurate
"We could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some."
Not Accurate
"Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown"
Not Accurate
"I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think - I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. There are no fundamental challenges remaining."
Not Accurate
"I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%"
Not Accurate
"I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year."
Not Accurate
"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can't speak for regulators though."
Unknown
"Aims to introduce a "personal autonomous vehicle" by mid-decade."
0 years, 7 months to go
"I will be shocked if we don't achieve FSD safer than a human this year"
Unknown
"... it could be closer to 2035 before we begin to see any meaningful deployments of fully self-driving vehicles"
9 years, 7 months to go
"Ocado Group to start delivering customer orders using FSD vehicles from 2023"
Not Accurate
"[no later than next year] Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves with no one [in them]"
Not Accurate
"This is only speculation, but I think we'll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year."
Not Accurate
"I know I'm the boy who cried FSD... But man, I think we'll be better than human by the end of the year"
Not Accurate
"Vehicles capable of performing all tasks equivalent to a human driver will likely not become publicly accessible until after 2035"
9 years, 7 months to go
"Self-driving cars could be on UK roads by 2026, says transport secretary"
0 years, 7 months to go
"Robo-taxis expected to become commercially available at a large scale by 2030. Fully autonomous trucking to reach viability between 2028 and 2031."
2 years, 7 months to go
"Driverless freight trucks cruise toward public debut in late 2024"
Not Accurate
"Driverless Cars Expected To Serve East Contra Costa [CA] Commuters By 2030"
4 years, 7 months to go
"Fully driverless cars on European roads “seems unlikely” anytime soon"
Unknown
"... it's very clear that that it will actually go to the point where it is far safer than a person driving the car."
Unknown
"I think we’ll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year."
Not Accurate
"Fully autonomous cars – Levels 4 – could amount to around 2.5% of total sales by 2030."
4 years, 7 months to go
"Level 5 trucks in Asia-Pacific by 2029, North America and Europe by 2030."
4 years, 7 months to go
"All transport will be fully autonomous within 50 years"
48 years, 7 months to go
"We think that we'll be able to have driverless Teslas doing paid rides next year"
0 years, 5 months to go
"[entirely computer-controlled driving] literally five, six months away"
0 years, 1 months to go
"The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination ... that will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year"
0 years, 7 months to go